FX
....the USD Index is under pressure this morning and testing the pivotal triangle base support at 102. As mentioned in this piece, a weekly close below would suggest the end of a one-year consolidation and open up for the potential for double digit percentage losses.
An impulsive move of that nature almost certainly means a good move higher in EURUSD would be on the cards- given it accounts for nearly 58% of the index. Pivotal resistance is at 1.1064 and then 1.1274 with a break of that latter level suggesting the next move could take us towards 1.17.
USDJPY has so far failed at the 38.2% pullback level (149.44) and looks heavy again. A move back towards 143.50 looks likely now with pivotal support at 140.25-141.70
USDBRL had a massive bearish outside week which mitigates if not negates (for now) a picture of BRL weakness. Support is met at 5.37 and 5.35 and below there 5.22
Fixed Income
I have laid out my case here in recent pieces (linked)
These pieces suggest a period of "CHOP" before yields head lower again.
Equities
The 2000 and 2007 analogs still hold good for equities with both suggesting further gains to come. Es1 just barely failed to close above the 76.4% pullback level on Friday at 5,579 which is exactly what happened on Friday 18th August 2000. Thereafter it continued higher again peaking on 01 Sept.
Above this level good resistance is met at 5,601 and 5,630 before the all-time high at 5,721
Commodities
Gold and Bitcoin remain choppy as usual but
WTI is firmly under pressure. I pontificated over the weekend on what could be a big driver for Oil in my piece
Is The Shoe On The Other Foot?
I remain of the view that the danger remains for a big move lower.
On WTI I think we can re-test the $71.67-$72.50 support area and a break below would suggest a move towards $67.70 again
***An audio version of this post can be found below*****
