Sitting here as Sunday draws to a close and the markets soon open for another week, I had a few thoughts that I thought I would "Put out there"
I preface this by saying that I am not a political or Geopolitical expert, and I am sure there will people and or events that will overtake this view...but here goes.
On 13th July we had the attempted assassination of Donald Trump followed by speculation of other potential plots involving "Bad actors". Whatever the truth about that 2nd supposition we know that security for Donald trump will now be at a hugely elevated state going into the election.
On 03 January 2020 Qasem Soleimani was killed by an American drone strike in Baghdad.
On 31 July, in Tehran, Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated- apparently without the knowledge or support of the US.
The verbal response from Iran was rapid and they asserted that they would extract a heavy price. What has happened since in that respect? Nothing. Why? It could be as suggested that they want to keep Israel waiting as suggested and build the attention...OR.....
Quick bit of history.
Back in 1980 the then incumbent president Jimmy Carter launched a failed rescue attempt in the midst of the Iranian hostage crisis. In a lot of circles that crisis was seen as his downfall and to rub salt into the wounds Iran released the hostages literally minutes after the inauguration of Ronald Reagan
It was not the only factor by far in the election result but at the margin had clear implications. Iran clearly delayed the release to that point to directly affect Carter's chances.
Well today the shoe is on the other foot. The guy that it seems Iran does not want in office is not the incumbent but rather the prior President who killed the Commander of the Quds force and of whom they are clearly not a fan.
Thereby to the extent it would make a difference today it seems that Iran would look much better if they came across as the positive influence in the present peace negotiations- even more so if a ceasefire agreement was accompanied by "restraint" in terms of a possible escalatory reprisal. It would also give the administration a Foreign Policy "Win" that would also have domestic implications given the level of unpopularity there is about this conflict
On the other hand (or foot) an attack helps Iran retain their Pariah status, increases support for Israel and to a certain extent makes the US administration look ineffective in brokering a solution....
Maybe I am way off here, and the coming weeks will surely tell...but if this is the path that follows, I think the Oil price could literally collapse with no economic support from demand and what would be a major Middle East/Geopolitical de-escalation.
