IF this support area gives way
It remains clear this could be a pivotal level to watch on TY1 (10-year US continuation future) in determining whether the present bear market move continues OR whether it comes to a halt and the prior bull market in place since April continues.
The bias is obviously very firmly that this level will give way
This stands around 108 30/31nds to 109 , which comprises a 76.4% retracement (for the 2nd time after that seen in April, horizontal support and rising trend line support
This area of support roughly translates into a level of about 4.53% on the US 10-year yield.
The Bear Case is that this support area gives way (Weekly close) suggesting that the whole period of price action from October 2023 to now has simply been a big bear flag. In that instance the suggestion would be for at least a test of the April 2024 low at 107. 04/32nds and possibly the Oct 2023 lows around 105 10/32nds.