The surge in the US 2's30's curve over the last 2 days following the "Dumpster Debate" seems to have run its course for now.
It is a long way to this election and there are likely a lot of zigs and zags before then, so the last few days seem like a huge overreaction to me.
In fact, the move almost perfectly replicated what we saw on 1-3 May
Then, as now, we saw a sharp 3-day surge (from minus 30 to minus 8 compared to minus 29 to minus 9 this time)
Then, as now , we hit a decisive new high on day 3 but finished relatively unchanged (Minus 15 in May and minus 14 yesterday)
Then , as now (so far) we fell the following day creating a clear evening star formation leading to renewed flattening
Finally, the double bottom suggested a move to minus 6 bp's compared to the high yesterday at minus 9 (Close enough for Government work) AND we perfectly stopped at the 76.4% pullback level of 4.655% on the 30 -year yield as we did at end May.
All this suggests (data notwithstanding) that for now we may have peaked in both the curve and the 30- year yield
