My overview FWIW
The overall report-qualitatively is NOT GOOD.
Underemployment at new high of 7.9% with full time jobs being lost (-438k) and part time jobs up (+527k) with +264k working part-time for economic reasons.
The actual move in the unemployment rate was from 4.25% to 4.22% (so really only a 0.03% change)
3 -month moving average on payrolls now 116k compared to 211k for prior 3 months
We saw a total of minus 89k in revision in last 2 months which sees 6 of the 7 months this year revised lower and one revised higher by just 7k
Last month now first sub 100k number since July 2019
BDR (wallpaper pattern) was 100k ..lowest August since 2019...reality creeping in at BLS?
Market reaction is I think because it does not solidify 50 bp's cut but also does not confirm 25 and given how far we moved 2's and 10's both effectively hit and held the 3.66%-3.67% supports.
I think 50 bp's is absolutely still in play and on a qualitative level on this report would favour 50 over 25.
Waller is up at 11 am and is i think the 2nd most important voice over Powell...so his guidance important
Return to If The Shoe FITZ
