I have on many occasions published the chart that shows the up and down moves in European inflation had more to do with energy price moves than anything the ECB did or didn't do.
True to form, just as Christine & Co. are patting themselves on the back about how they have "tamed" inflation and getting ready for June rate cut European Natural gas is once again surging.
It is up over 5% today and 18% in just 5-days
Inevitably (and mistakenly) this will likely lead to a "Fed-esque" shift in comments in the days and weeks ahead back to a "one and done for now narrative" for June as we enter into a period of Central Banks flip flopping more times that I have eaten hot dinners.
Get ready....it's coming and will probably cause a bit of a storm in European rate pricing.
