Fixed income
US 2-year yield looks susceptible to drifting lower this week with PCE on Friday being a primary focus. Some good support (yield) is met around 3.45% which should contain any losses for now. Good resistance is met at 3.65-3.66% and then 3.70%. The 2007 analog would suggest that after this week we could pause/bounce in this move lower in yield.
US 30-year yield posted an outside week last week suggesting it could bounce further towards 4.22%
US 2's 5's is now close to very good resistance at minus 4 to minus 5 bp's (trend line and 200-week MA) but the overall target remains +30 to +35 bp's
US 2's 10's is already above the 200-week MA and retains a target of +55 bp's
US 2's 30's is also above its 200-week MA with good resistance at +62 bp's and an ultimate target of +125 bp's
FX
USDCNH had a decisive weekly close below pivotal support at 7.0875 suggesting further losses as far as 6.84-6.85
USDJPY had a bullish outside week suggesting the possibility of a further move to the topside. First good resistance is at 147.20
CNHJPY had a strong bullish outside week suggesting further CNH outperformance
EURJPY also had a bullish outside week.
EURUSD is lower this morning on soft economic data in Europe. The daily pattern looks "evening star'esque" suggesting a danger of a move towards 1.10 again.
Equities
It took the SPX 33 trading days to go from the double digit %age corrective low into August to back to a new all-time high. In 2007 that number was 36 trading days and the high was posted 4 trading days later. The support area to watch that might be a red flag is a move back below 5,650-5,670
NDX very good levels to watch at 19,939 to 19,984 (possible double-top and 76.4% retracement). IF that range gives way, then a move back to the high at 20,771 could be on the cards. In 2007 the highs here were posted on 31 Oct.
The Bank Index (BKX) is so far holding good resistance at 116-117 which over the past 7-years with the exception of 2021. In 2007 the turning point was the 121 area
Commodities
Bitcoin has a very good resistance level at 65,030 (possible double bottom) with a weekly close above, if seen, suggesting as high as $77k
Oil once again has its "geopolitical bid" which in the past has not been sustainable. CL1 has good resistance in the $71.70-$72.50 area and if that goes we could see $75.50 again. CO1 has good resistance at $75.05 to $76.75
HG1(Copper) has continued higher also and has good resistance now around $430.50
NG1 (natural gas) has completed a very nice double bottom that suggests a move to at least $2.75 again.