I have made clear in recent pieces that I think the Fed should and will move 50 bp's next week.
Time will tell if that is correct but, in that respect, the 18th of Sept 2007 roadmap (When forecasters were looking for a 25 bp move and got 50) as per the piece What Does Jay Want? is a good guide to use.
What happened back then ?
US 2-year yield: Fell 10 bp's on the day and then regained all the losses and more in the following 2-days before another fall into 28 Sept.
Then the market clearly (and wrongly) interpreted this as a likely series of large moves ie front loading- so maybe therefore needing to do less. From 28 Sept to 15 Oct the 2-year yield moved up nearly 40 bp's.
However, as that perception was dashed and replaced by a belief that the Fed was behind the curve the 2-year yield turned lower and fell 140 bp's by 26 November
US 10-year yield: Was unchanged on the day and then bounced 23 bp's in the next 2 trading days. It then range traded and created a double top that completed on 18th October resulting in a move lower of more than 90 bp's by 26 November
US 2's10's curve: Closed 11 bp's higher on the day and continued higher for another week. Price action was a bit zig zag thereafter but by November the curve was more than 60 bp's higher than the lows on Decision Day
S&P: Closed up 2.8% on the day and continued to rally to a new all-time high by 11th October. At that point the real bear market began and by 26 November it was 11% off that peak.