Today is Trading day 18 in the volatile path of Es1 and potentially a big day.
For the daily analog from last July-August to remain in play Es1 really needs to post at least a solid if not spectacular up day today. It was such a development on the 18th trading day (08 August, 2024) that propelled it higher in the following week.
On trading day 18 (08 August 2024) we saw a strong rally that set-in store a material bounce higher.
Is this that day ??
Back in August that was an up day of 140 points (open to close)
While the bounce does not of course need to be that large I think it needs to be material to suggest that the up move could continue in line the analog and with the positive 2nd half of March seasonals everybody appears to be hoping for (that in itself may become a warning sign)
In addition, if we do get that strong up close today, I would also like to see it followed by a positive
"St Paddy's Day"
on Monday as this trend has yet to see 2 up days in a row.
Where could we bounce to If we get these developments?
I think a move towards 5,770-5,800 would be a reasonable expectation over the next week or so with interim resistance at 5,675.
Right now, it is hard to anticipate more given that the medium-term technical picture for the S&P as well as the NASDAQ and SOX indices still looks very concerning.
