For 17 years with the exception of a blip higher in 2007 and a period in 2021-2022 (Both of which still ended badly) the KBW Bank Index has constantly struggled to sustain a move above the 114.50-116.50.
This time is starting to look like no exception.
We recently hit a high of 116.07 (this week) and have turned sharply lower, opening up the possibility of a bearish outside week (close below 111.28 tomorrow)
In addition, there has been very significant momentum divergence developing on the weekly chart since March. While not classic quadruple divergence here (potentially is on S&P banks index as well as some individual institutions) it is still flashing warnings that we are finally in the "bad news is bad news" phase.
In the past turns from this area have led to falls town towards and often below 90.
