While 2's5's are my Financial Bible and are testing good levels here the chart that is on the cusp of a major break is the 2's 30's curve.
There are 2 things to watch here
1. We have a 9-month double bottom potentially completing at +8 to +9 bp's
A weekly close above here suggests that we can continue higher towards a target of around +60 bp's
2. We have a 2-year double bottom potentially completing at +6 bp's
A weekly close above here suggests that we can continue higher towards a target of around +125 to +130 bp's
How can I put this "diplomatically"
Signs are growing by the day that the Fed has grossly misread the situation (again).
Given their "obsession" with signaling this will likely not lead them to move on 31 July but just like in 2000-2001 it is starting to increase the possibility that the first move will be 50 bp's
IF we see the 2-year yield move towards 140 bp's inversion to Fed Funds before that meeting (18 sept) at 4.10% then I think a 50 bp move becomes a clear and present danger.