Below I have what I think are 3 of the best charts out there on a "big picture" basis which I selectively award the Gold, Silver and Bronze medals to.
BRONZE
This goes to GBPUSD.
The recent rally once again tested but failed at the 76.4% pullback level (1.2881) and it has turned lower again.
At the high last week it also posted a bearish outside week.
This suggests it could retrace all the way back towards the April low at 1.2300.
IF that level were to give way it would then complete a double top (bigger than the one completed in April) that would target as low as 1.1750 with 1.2037 (level off which the 76.4% pullback was formed) a likely acceleration point.
Catalysts: Strong USD/ Weak economy/ Dovish BOE and politics- The UK always ends up looking for change (look at Brexit) but you should be careful what you wish for.
SILVER
That goes to ERZ5 (Dec 2025 Euribor)
The May-June lows have sustained this above the longer term 76.4% retracement area at 97.06
Last week it posted a bullish outside week (first in the 2024 down move and first since Nov 2023) off this support and broke impulsively above the downward sloping trend line from the Jan 2024 downtrend (which began with a bearish outside week)
Good resistance is met at 97.435-97.44 with a break opening up for a move towards 97.785-97.79.
Above here and the Jan 2024 high at 98.185 comes into play. This is also the pivot off which the 76.4% retracement formed and IF it gave way a further acceleration would be expected.
Catalysts: Weak Economy, as ECB afraid to go it alone but then having to capitulate; weak Chinese demand; politics
And the GOLD medal goes to
SFRZ5 (Dec'2025 SOFR)
I know some people will think I am mad with this chart but so did a lot of people in the Summer of 2007 when I put out a 10-year yield chart that suggested that we could see 2% by the end of Q4, 2008. (The trend low became 2.03% in December 2008). That does not mean that this chart will develop as suggested- but it does mean it is worth thinking on.
The low posted in early May here was 95.565 off which it posted a bullish outside week at the trend low. (First one since Nov. 2023)
That low was almost identical to the long-term trend low posted in Oct 2023 at 95.55 setting up what looks like it could be a major double bottom forming. (I admit there is still a lot of work to do in that respect)
Thereafter it has broken (weekly close) above good resistance at 96.095-96.13 opening up the way for a test of horizontal resistance (Feb-Mar 2024 highs) and the long-term trend line resistance going back to the 2020 peak at 96.536-96.611
A break of this range would open up the way for a test of HUGE resistance at 96.95 (Dec 2023 high) and potential neckline of a large double bottom.
A sustained break above there would argue for a move towards 98.35 with resistance along the way at 97.455-97.46 and 97.935-97.965.
There is a lot of water under the bridge and time likely before this setup develops (IF IT EVER DOES) BUT
As I regularly like to say.......
The only thing unthinkable in these markets is that anything is unthinkable- and NOBODY is thinking this.
