And right now those actions are sadly lacking when it comes to BOJ/MOF
160.17 was not just the trend high but very similar to the 160.20 high posted in April 1990.
That was just after the Nikkei posted its then all-time high at 38,957 which we are now back below again albeit marginally) By April 1990 the Nikkei had already fallen 30% from its peak
In 1990 (Sept) Japanese 10 year yields also hit the trend high at 8.27% (hard to believe) but not until October after initially peaking in February at 7.07% and then correcting. The renewed move higher in yields began in late May but that came in an environment of the BOJ hiking rates 175 bp's in 1990 starting in March and ending in August with a peak at 6%.
So both the equity and Fixed income backdrops at this point are dramatically different from that seen in 1990 with the BOJ/MOF showing a great reluctance to add any significant policy changes to its FX intervention.
Absent an addition of monetary policy measures it is difficult to see how they can sustain a move lower in USDJPY like we saw in 1990.
IF we decisively break above 160.17-160.20 there is no notable resistance until 163.80-164.10 (Horizontal resistance and the 50% pullback (Log chart) of the whole fall during the floating exchange rate era from 357.41 to 75.35.
IF that range gives way next notable resistance is at 177- Pretty much the target of the long term inverted Head and Shoulders (175)completed in April 2022
The time for talk is long since past and absent material monetary action the market should be preparing for the danger of another move higher in USDJPY.
